The German packaging paper and board market is showing no signs of recovery as 2025 draws to a close. According to the latest market update from EUWID, industry players report that demand remained weak throughout November—underperforming even the already subdued October levels—and expectations are low for any substantial improvement before year-end.

Recycled corrugated case materials have maintained stable pricing despite sluggish activity, with producers and converters alike holding back on significant pricing moves amid low order volumes. However, stability does not reflect optimism; rather, it reveals a market in limbo, lacking both momentum and clarity.

The situation in the unlined chipboard (greyboard) segment appears particularly chaotic. On one side, oversupply has driven some producers to offer discounts in an attempt to secure volume. On the other, buyers are encountering difficulties sourcing material due to reduced output and machine downtime among key producers, who have idled lines in response to weak demand and excess inventory.

This dual pressure—oversupply and production cuts—is creating unpredictable price fluctuations and inconsistent availability, complicating procurement for converters and raising concerns about supply continuity heading into early 2026.

Industry analysts suggest that the continued downturn reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, with consumer spending, retail activity, and industrial output all contributing to the reduced need for packaging materials. Energy prices and cost volatility also continue to weigh on both manufacturers and logistics providers in Germany and beyond.

For now, many in the industry are operating in a holding pattern, managing inventory cautiously and delaying major purchasing decisions until clearer market signals emerge. With just weeks left in the year, a rebound is increasingly unlikely before Q1 2026.

Despite the stagnant demand, some converters are hopeful that the imbalance in greyboard supply will resolve as production normalizes and order cycles stabilize. However, until end-user demand improves, the sector is expected to remain under pressure—both in pricing dynamics and operational planning.

The packaging paper and board sector in Germany will enter 2026 still facing the same key question: when will consumption recover enough to restore balance and predictability across the supply chain?